RASMUSSEN DAILY PRESIDENTIAL TRACKING POLL AS OF SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2012 (AND 2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP)…
Rasmussen, by far, has the most accurate, up-to-date polling statistics (thank you, Scott! We love you!) Obama’s approval isn’t looking too good so be prepared to hear more hate, fear and lies coming from him and his campaign in the coming weeks. That’s the only thing he’s got because he can’t run on his “accomplishments”.
Following is the latest presidential tracking poll as of today, Sunday, October 7, 2012, according to Rasmussen. Please keep in mind that these numbers are based upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate that was held last week, October 3, 2012. First, take a look at the Electoral College Map…
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, October 07, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate last Wednesday night.
The numbers reflect a modest debate bounce for Romney. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.
Scott Rasmussen’s weekly newspaper column notes that “incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.” Rasmussen wonders, “Does Obama have a comeback like that in him? We’ll find out on October 16.”
Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their mind before voting. Forty-three percent (43%) are certain they will vote for Obama. Platinum Members can still see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Neil Barofsky, the Special Inspector General for the TARP bailouts, joins Scott Rasmussen on this weekend’s edition of What America Thinks. His experience as an outsider in Washington suggests that things in the nation’s capital are even worse than most people think. The nationally syndicated television show can be seen on more than 60 stations nationwide. In New York, it can be found on WLNY in New York at 10:30 on Sunday morning. In Phoenix, it’s on CBS5 this afternoon at 5 right before the local news. This weekend’s show also features a post-debate discussion of where things stand in Election 2012.
Post-debate state polls show Romney up one in Virginia, the president up one in Ohio and Romney up two in Florida. All three remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. In addition to the new TV show, we regularly release our work at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate.
If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 29% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13 (see trends).
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.” During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.